President Joe Biden has hit yet another low in the latest NBC News poll released Sunday, with his approval rating hitting 37% and raising the concerns of the Democrat pollster, who said Biden has “a presidency in peril” because of the “damning results.”
GOP challenger President Donald Trump leads the current president by five points (47%-42%) in the nationwide poll and also leads by substantial margins:
• 35 points on securing the southern border with Mexico (57%-22%)
• 23 points on physical and mental health to be president (46%-23%)
• 21 points on dealing with violence and crime (50%-29%)
• 22 points on handling the economy (55%-33%)
• 11 points on improving the standing of America in the world (47%-36%)
• 16 points on being effective and competent (48%-32%)
Illegal immigration has been broadly deemed the top voting issue according to the early GOP primary states’ exit polls.
“What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden’s standing against Trump compared to four years ago,” said Jeff Horwitt, Democrat pollster of Hart Research Associates, to NBC News.
“On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated,” Horwitt continued.
Right now, Trump’s numbers look great and “difficult” for the incumbent Biden going into the heart of the primary cycle, according to GOP pollster of Public Opinion Strategies, Bill McInturff.
McInturff told NBC News, “It is hard to imagine a more difficult set of numbers before a reelection.”
With a staggering 73% of registered voters saying the United States is on the wrong track under President Biden, the only glimmer of hope for him is there is time remaining to turn the numbers around.
“Biden can take solace that we are in January and not October 2024,” added Horwitt. “At this stage in prior cycles, attitudes can change.”
Backers of the president must hope Trump is convicted on one of the four indictments he faces. If the former president is convicted of a felony, the polls change, with Biden leading Trump by two points (45%-43%). However, that is a statistical tie within the margin of error.
Biden has steep climb ahead leading to election
However, on actual presidential action and policy, Biden has a steep climb ahead of his administration nine months before the November election, as the surge for Trump is representative of substantial swings from 2020 polling.
Notably, Biden’s campaign made its case in 2020 for being more effective and competent, but now Trump has a significant advantage by 16 points. This amounts to a 25-point swing from June 2020, at the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic backlash and George Floyd riots.
President Biden’s record-low 37% approval rating in the NBC News poll is heavily weighed down by his paltry 29% approval of his handling of the Israel war on Hamas.
However, pollsters note the momentum in all areas remains continuously rising for Trump:
• Effective and competent: Trump flipped a 9-point deficit in June 2020 to a lead of 16 points today, another swing of 25 points.
• Border: Former President Trump raised his lead from 16 points in September 2020 to 35 points in January 2024.
• Violence and crime: The former president turned a 4-point deficit during the 2020 riots to a 21-point lead today, a swing of 25 points.
• Physical and mental health to be president: Trump flipped a 1-point deficit in October 2020 — while he remained hospitalized with Covid-19 — to a 23-point lead today.
• Economy: Former President Trump raised his 7-point lead in October 2020 to a notable 22 points now.
Although Biden was able to take the presidency from Trump in 2020 because of Covid-19 and race backlash, Americans have soured on the president and his administration’s results. Trump now leads all polled factions in total positive views at 38%.
• Up 2 points on President Biden (36%)
• Up 11 points on former Democrat candidate turned Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (27%)
• Up 15% on Republican rival Nikki Haley (23%)
• Up 27 on Democrat Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who may mount a third-party presidential campaign
• Up 10 points on the U.S. Supreme Court (28%)
• Up 28 points on Cornel West, the People’s Party presidential candidate
• Up 10 points on Vice President Kamala Harris (28%)
When the poll expanded the field from a hypothetical one-on-one race between Biden and Trump (45%), it widened his lead to six points over Biden (39%) and the rest of the field.
The Republican primary race belongs to Trump, who pulled 79% support and leads candidate Haley by 60 points among GOP primary voters.
Behind President Biden’s new low of 37% approval rating, down three points from the NBC News poll low of 40% in November according to the NBC News report:
• Only 27% of independent voters approve.
• Just 35% of Latinos approve
• Only 29% of young voters approve overall (only 15% on the Hamas-Israel war; 70% disapprove).
“A major through line in what ails Biden most are his travails with younger voters,” said Horwitt.
The previously listed demographics are crucial for Trump, who has made significant progress among Black voters but still trails widely there. Trump leads among Latinos (42%-41%) and is tied with voters under age 35 (42%).Hart Associates and Public Opinion Strategies conducted the NBC News poll on January 26-30 among 1,000 registered voters. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
