New York Times Poll: Trump Leads Biden in Five of Six Battleground States

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden by an average of 48% to 44% in five out of six of the most critical battleground states, which Biden carried in 2020, according to new polls by Siena College and The New York Times.

The president’s number suffered in the polls because voters were concerned about his age, along with their dissatisfaction over how he is handling the economy and other significant issues, reported The New York Times.

The poll shows Biden losing to Trump, his most likely Republican challenger, by three to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Michigan. The poll margin of error was minus or plus 1.8 percentage points with all combined states but between 4.4 and 3.8 percentage points for each state.

In Wisconsin, the only battleground state where the president is leading, he only led Trump by two percentage points. The results, with numbers based on the polls of 3,662 registered voters between October 22 to November 3, are as follows:

• Arizona: Trump, 49%; Biden, 44%.
• Nevada: Trump, 52%; Biden, 41%.
• Georgia: Trump, 49%; Biden, 43%.
• Pennsylvania: Trump, 48%; Biden, 44%.
• Michigan: Trump, 48%; Biden, 43%.
• Wisconsin: Biden, 47%; Trump, 45%.
• Women preferred President Biden by 47% to 46%.
• Men preferred Trump by 62% to 33%.

Most voters in the poll said President Biden’s policies have personally hurt them, and the survey showed the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that led to his win in 2020 is falling apart. It also showed two-thirds of the electorate is seeing the U.S. moving in the wrong direction under Biden.

This time, voters under 30 only favored the president by one percentage point, according to the poll. Furthermore, Biden’s lead with Hispanic voters registered in the single digits, while his advantage in urban regions was around half of what Trump has in rural areas.

Women favor Biden, with men preferring Trump by twice as much

The poll also showed that while women favor Biden, men prefer Trump by twice as much.

Black voters also fell away from Biden, registering 22% support in crucial battleground states for Trump. The level hasn’t been seen for a GOP presidential candidate in recent years.

The poll found President Biden only led in Wisconsin, the most Caucasian state of the six polled.

With Trump coming out ahead of the poll, both Biden and Trump remain unpopular with the voters, but they also blamed Biden, not Trump, when saying the nation is headed down the wrong path.

With the presidential election about a year away, Biden has time to turn the numbers around, and his advisers stress Democrats’ limited party losses in the 2022 midterm elections. However, the president had dismal approval ratings.

If the poll’s number hold, Trump will take more than 300 Electoral College votes, with numbers significantly higher than the 270 he’ll need to return to the White House.

In the meantime, voters across all income levels said they think President Biden’s policies hurt them, but Trump has helped them.

Additionally, 71% of the voters said Biden, who will turn 81 later in the month, is “too old” to be effective as president. The opinion was shared across all states and demographics and included 54% of Biden’s supporters.

The poll showed that only 19% of former President Trump’s supporters viewed him at age 77 as being too old, with 39% of the poll respondents agreeing.

In addition, 62% said they don’t think Biden has the “mental sharpness” to be an effective president.

In another concerning finding for Biden, 59% said they trust Trump more on the economy when compared to 37% for the president.

This comes while twice as many voters said economic issues will determine how they vote in the 2024 election as those who commented that they would base a vote on social issues like guns or abortion. Voters who said the economy was most critical favored Trump by 60% to 32%.

Furthermore, only 2% of voters think the economy is excellent. In comparison, less than 1% of voters under 30 said they believe the economy is excellent, including none of the poll respondents in the age group in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.

In other numbers, voters favored Trump overwhelmingly on national security, the Israel-Hamas war, and immigration.