As the dog days of summer were drawing to a close and people were anticipating the coming midterm elections, there was a prevalent narrative circulating that the Democratic Party would likely retain their majority in the House and probably limit their losses to just a few seats.
That storyline was driven by just a few political sites like Nate Silver’s with less than accurate election models ignoring the basic fundamentals of the voting electorate.
But when you ignore the fundamentals and instead focus diligently on historically bad polling, you disseminate disinformation to the American public. There is mounting evidence now that indicates the House of Representatives is a lost cause for the Democratic Party.
The positive momentum is now replaced by inner-party fights in districts that are not even supposed to be at risk. And most experts agree that things are going to get even worse as we approach election day.
Rhode Island’s 2nd District is the perfect example of the shining momentum. Republican Allan Fung leads Democrat Seth Magaziner by 8 points now. That should be a neon light for Democrats revealing that even when you allow for the changes that were made in redistricting, Joe Biden won that same region by a massive 14 points.
So how in the world is a Republican about to win in the midterms? It should not even be competitive, much less the GOP leading by 8 points.
And that is just one example of the shift that has taken place, Oregon’s 6th district is another one. The situation is dire for the Democrats there as well now. After you take into account the changes in districting, Joe Biden won that region by 13 points in 2020, and today, Republican Mike Erickson leads by 5 points. Stunning.
And what makes this even harder to believe is that if you cite Andrea Salinas’ own Democrat internal numbers, she is still only ahead by one point. That is a tricky place to be in a year when the winds of change are blowing against the incumbent political party due mainly to the pain voters are feeling because of inflation.
This narrative just keeps going all around the country, like in Northern Virginia’s 10 districts. This should be a national stronghold for the Democratic Party, it is rated D+19, for goodness sake.
This is not supposed to be a district that is even in play for the GOP, the national party should not have to spend a dime there from the DCCC’s coffers. But yet there has been a very sharp negative turn in campaigning there with less than a month to go before the vote.
Candidates from this district typically prefer to stay above the typical national fight over issues and only get in the mud when they think there is no choice. Well, Jennifer Wexton is in the mud in her fight with Republican rival Hung Can who is within striking distance in this blue region.
Democrats Could Loose House if Key Seats Are Lost
Some are saying that if this is happening there, there’s no chance the Democrats are going to hold the House.
But there is even more. The information coming to the surface nationally adds up to more than a slight swing, it looks like there is a red wave coming. Democrats are having to viciously defend districts that should not be in play and were not even on the table just a few months ago. Remember when the model was “Democrats are resurgent” as the phase of political modeling? If these heavily rooted Democratic districts are now in play, there are lots of seats that were much closer than that which are lost by now.
Now experts are coming out saying that it is probably that Republicans will easily go over the 240-seat count when the November voting is done.
The GOP should be getting out their surfboards.