Some GOP House members privately worry about how a partial government shutdown would affect their electoral chances in November.
“If we shut down, we lose,” said one legislator.
Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson of Louisiana, according to sources, unveiled his plan to avoid a partial shutdown in a private phone conversation with GOP legislators Wednesday morning.
It involves an extension of six months of fiscal year 2024’s federal funding levels known as a “continuing resolution” (CR) — to buy Senate and House negotiators additional time to hash out next year’s priorities for spending — and would be linked to legislation adding a proof of citizenship requirement for the process of voter registration.
However, with both the White House and Democrat Senator Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York publicly opposing the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, it remains doubtful Johnson’s plan would be DOA if it passed the House.
“My problem isn’t with the policy, which I support. My problem isn’t with the messaging, which I think is strong. My problem is that I just don’t think Chuck Schumer is going to agree to it,” said a second House Republican of their concerns about the plan.
If the House and Senate don’t agree on a path forward by October 1, the country could experience a partial government shutdown about a month before Election Day.
Past government shutdowns, such as those seen under the Trump and Obama administrations in 2019 and 2013, have traditionally seen Americans blame Republicans.
“In general, the voters seem to have a strong bias for blaming Republicans for shutdowns, which is understandable,” continued the second Republican.
“We often have the most combative rhetoric leading up to a shutdown. We often are the ones who are most quick to claim that a shutdown isn’t a real problem. And so, I think we kind of telegraph to voters that we’re OK with that. I think that makes it a little easier for the Democrats to try to stick us with [it].”
At the end of their explanation, they added, “But it takes two to tango, and I don’t think what we’re asking for is too much.”
Questions were raised on Johnson’s next step if a “clean” CR sent back by the Senate
In the meantime, two sources familiar with the House GOP call on Tuesday said questions were raised about Johnson’s next step if the Senate sent back a “clean” CR with no attachments, and concerns were made public about how a potential shutdown would affect vulnerable GOP members.
“The Republicans have the majority today because we won seats in California and [other blue states]. Those seem to be members who’d be most disadvantaged by a shutdown in the four weeks before an election,” said the second Republican lawmaker.
Doug Heye, a veteran GOP strategist, said a possible shutdown could have less impact given that it’s a presidential election year, but he concluded, “That’s a real risk to take.”
“Republicans usually get blamed for shutdowns, and that could play into Harris’ ‘Trump-as’ chaos’ argument,” said Heye.
However, he added, “That’s not a bet I’d make. Especially when the speaker has offered a path to avoid this.”
Other GOP members dismissed political blowback fears in the event of a government shutdown.
Republican Representative Tim Burchett of Tennessee, who has not opposed or committed to Johnson’s plan, said, “The legacy media makes these shutdowns worse than they are. … Nobody loses their House; Nobody loses a dime. They all get made whole.”
A partial shutdown of the government would see some federal services that are deemed non-emergency halted, with potentially thousands of employees of the government furloughed.
However, any federal payments that are paused during a shutdown are made retroactively to their recipients.
GOP Texas Representative Chip Roy of the SAVE Act architects wouldn’t say whether he would want a shutdown if the Johnson plan failed to pass.
“I’m not going to play the shutdown game … the press wants to make it about a shutdown. Democrats want to make this about a shutdown,” said Roy. “We’re offering to fund the government — all manners of sin, by the way, in that government … we’re willing to do that, but these guys need to make sure our elections are secure.”
“If [Democrats] want to shut the government down, that’s on them.”
