Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris may have already enjoyed her most successful campaign weeks, according to a new J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com election model. The model shows the former President and GOP presidential nominee opening up a 10-point lead.
The model computes all the latest poll data, decades of election results, and economic indicators to calculate who has the best chance to win the electoral college in November.
It continues to show Harris the best chance to win the popular vote at 50.8 percent. However, state-by-state numbers all show the Blue Wall of states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, tilting toward President Donald Trump, giving him the overall advantage when claiming the White House.
It gives him a 55.2 percent chance of victory. VP Harris is only at 44.6 percent, with a slight chance of tying.
The best way to understand what it means is to imagine running the model numerous times with all the combinations and modifications for all the different states. When all of those are run, Donald Trump wins, on average, 55.2 percent of the time.
That is a four-point increase since Monday and nine points since is low post-debate.
Either way, it demonstrates the race will be close despite the momentous events of the past two months or so, when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race to be replaced by Harris, and former President Trump survived two attempted assassinations.
Callum Hunter, a data scientist at J.L. Partners, said a lot could happen between now and November, but the current trend is clear.
“Things are continuing to move against Harris,” said Hunter. “While September saw her gain ground as a result of the debate and changes in ballot access, things have started to settle back to where they were at the start of September.”
“If current trends continue (although these have only been in place for a week or so), then we may see Trump take a more concrete lead in the race over the coming few weeks. September seems to have been Harris’s high point, and trends suggest that this high has come to an end,” continued Harris.
Harris’ honeymoon appears to be over
VP Harris enjoyed record-breaking fundraising immediately after entering the race. Her poll numbers also increased. She also bested Donald Trump, by most measures, in their debate earlier in the month.
However, the election model suggests her advantage in the popular vote is balanced by the former president’s support in some of the states that will determine the outcome.
The model suggests Pennsylvania has further moved into Trump’s column. His probability of winning the state now stands at 58 percent, an increase of eight points from where he stood immediately following the debate.
But as things stand, he leads by less than one point of the vote in the state—around 27,000 voters.
These voters could ultimately decide who occupies the White House in January because if the model is adjusted to award Pennsylvania to Trump, the former president wins the election 100 percent of the time.
Additional election models show things moving in Donald Trump’s direction following several favorable polls.
A nationwide Quinnipiac Poll showed him a point ahead of Harris, and a New York Times/Siena Poll gave him the lead in the crucial Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
As a result, for now, Trump has more paths to the presidency than his rival.
